High data rates China’s points of interest more rises (the globe and mail)

Chinese imports and exports jumped in November, bank loans topped forecasts and investment property powered ahead of time, a series of numbers which could pave the way to the Central Bank raise interest rates at this weekend.

Robust data released Friday also offered a double dose of good news for the world economy: a reminder that China's application was even faster and indication that recoveries American and European have been picking up steam.

China has been slow to tighten monetary policy, this year, partly due to fear of a double dip recession in the developed countries.

But with China's inflation running at its fastest clip for more than two years, analysts are now in the quest for the second global release a more aggressive mix of rate increases, the currency loan restrictions and more reserve requirements for banks.

"Every angle, the case of additional liquidity and the credit crunch as well as rate hikes and appreciation are strong enough, said Tao Wang, Economist of UBS to Beijing."

In the meantime, another strong month for China's trade surplus could in international critical cost of its exchange rate regime. The United States and Europe say that an undervalued currency gives exporters an unfair advantage on world markets.

November imports rose 37.7 per cent from a year earlier, easily topping forecasts for increased by 24.2%, propelled by voracious appetite China products.

Chinese imports have developed a habit in the last two years of surprise on the upside. In this regard, jumping from 34.9 per cent in exports, above expectations of the market for a 22.0% increase has been the biggest surprise.

"The increase in exports appears to be dictated by just ahead of the holiday season rush orders" Mingchun Sun and Kevin Lai, Daiwa, capital market economists said in a note.

Evidence from this point of view was the fact that final goods markets such as Europe and the United States exceeded those of intermediate goods to Asia.

"It remains to be seen, well understood, if it can be maintained,"they added.""

The United States exports increased 32.2%, while shipments to the EU, most major trading partner China climbed from 33.8 per cent. The increase in exports China left with a surplus of juicy $ 22.9 billion (US) in November, the seventh month of trade performance right impressive. During this stretch, its average surplus was $ 22.2 billion.

Data on trade stimulated the main index of Chinese stock of 1.1% even if investors remain cautious ahead of inflation to be released during the weekend data. Shanghai index was flat before the publication of data.

Even without criticism of its main trading partners of the West, rising inflation in China could exert pressure on the rise on the yuan.

"Trade surplus data arrives at a time when domestic inflation is on the rise, indicating that the pace of appreciation of the yuan against the dollar could speed up next year," said Lu Zhengwei, an economist at the Industrial Bank in Shanghai.

Prices of Chinese consumers may hit 5.1% in the year in November, a top support, State of 28 months reported Friday. Wide M2 as China pink money 19.5% in November of the previous year, while banks extended 564 billion yuan ($84.7 billion in new loans in local currency in November, the Central Bank said. The two issues have been slightly ahead of expectations.

Banks have already beaten on year-round loan quota 7.5 trillion yuan set by the Government.

"Total lending will certainly exceed 8 trillion yuan this year, which will open the way for the Central Bank to adopt measures more clamping in the future", says Gao Shanwen, Chief Economist at the essence of the securities in Beijing.

"We expect at least an interest rate more increase this year, and the move could come soon", he added.

Friday, the Chinese leadership has opened three day Conference work economic centre, a gathering where they will establish the strategic direction for the next year.

Office of policy, governing body of the Communist Party, set the tone of the meeting last week when he announced a shift in "prudent" position "properly loose" monetary policy over the past two years.

Separate data, the National Bureau of statistics said real estate edged up 0.3% in November from a month earlier, while the real estate investment increased by 36.7% one year earlier. The real estate sector focused much of China tightening this year, with the Government determined to extricate the speculation.

Analysts said that the floating figures should help ease concerns about the possibility of collateral damage to the economy measures for cooling in the inflamed housing market.