Brent sliding $1 ahead of payrolls - Reuters

By Simon Falush

LONDON | Friday, July 8, 2011 6 pm EDT

London (Reuters) - Brent crude fell about $1 Friday before closely watched data from non-farm payroll us, as investors reserved some profits after the previous session data lifted confidence in the global economy and pushed Brent up to $ 5.

ICE Brent crude was down 67 cents to $117.92 a barrel by 1004 GMT after they fell on the day of the low of $117.06. U.S. gross was $ 98.16 per barrel, down 51 cents.

Oil prices are still headed for their second directly weekly gain, with Brent ready to rise about 5 percent this week. Brent is approximately 24% this year.

Brent posted its biggest daily gain of percentage in two months, on Thursday, reaching a maximum of three weeks as U.S. data on jobless claims and retail sales came in higher than expected.

That prompted many economists to raise the forecast for the count of non-farm compensation from the Government because of the later Friday.

"Payroll numbers are absolutely key," said Amrita Sen, analyst at Barclays Capital. "Oil withdraw in May because the macro data are low due to the effects of the earthquake in the Japan, but we would expect to see this rebound in July and August."

She added that retreat Friday was partially until profits after the sharp rise the previous day.

Barclays Capital raised its crude oil Brent forecast Tuesday from $ 10 to $ 115 for 2012, although he left its forecasts unchanged 2011 to $112. JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley have also issued optimistic notes on the Outlook for oil prices this week.

Oil prices have bounced about 10 percent after plunging cuts four months after the International Energy Agency (IEA) reserves shock June 23 announcement that the Member nations would release 60 million barrels of oil.

I said it would consider later this month to release more reserves or not, but do not see program extending more than a month or two.

JP Morgan said in a report that the time of the release of IEA threw a spotlight on the seal to the world's oil supply.

"Cancelled policy, the main reason for which we can see the precise moment of the release of stock I had coincided with clear indications of the traffic data oil that OPEC output would fall short of earlier promises", the Bank said in a report Thursday.

"As such, it is difficult to find anything, except that there is little or no capacity seconded in the oil market."

China, a major oil consumer, this week raised rates for the third time this year in a bid to tame inflation, raising hopes of Government tightening monetary cycle may be near its end.

Annual inflation in the country in June is provided on a maximum of three years approximately 6.3%, according to a survey by Reuters of 28 economists.

Governor of Central Bank of China Zhou Xiaochuan, said Friday the monetary policy of the country needed to support economic growth and controlling inflation.

WATCH STOCK

U.S. inventory data helped keep a lid on prices.

Crude oil inventories fell 889,000 barrels to 358.6 million barrels during the week of July 1, below average forecasts of a levy of 2.3 million barrels, U.S. Energy Information Administration data showed Thursday. .

However, stocks of gasoline fell unexpectedly 634,000 barrels to the

212.5 million barrels, compared to the projections of the analyst for a construction of 100,000 barrels.

Distillates, heating and diesel oil posted a fall of 191 000 barrels of surprise to 142.05 million barrels, compared with an increase in forecast of 700,000 barrels in the same way.

(Additional reporting by Stephen Mangan in London and Francis Kan in Singapore)

RPT-Wall St Week Ahead: Bulls ready to charge into the wall of worry - Reuters

(Repeats column originally transmitted late Friday)

* End quarter Bounce looms for stocks

* The Greece and the Italy are sources of uncertainty

* S & P 200 days moving average line in the sand.

By Rodrigo Campos

(NEW YORK, June 26, Reuters) - A bounce could be in the cards for us stocks this week as the bulls of defending a level key technical and portfolio managers buy winners of the quarter to support their books.

But earnings from defensive staples or other areas health care which exceeded the market in recent months only support the notion that the US stock market should complete its phase of correction and panic sale must be done before a more sustained return develops.

"We want to see more fear," said Ari Wald, strategist of fairness to Brown Brothers Harriman in New York.

Be careful that your desires.

The problems that have led the recent decline, including the slow March of the Greece to default on its debt, weak U.S. economic data and the rampant due to lift the ceiling of the U.S. debt, are far from resolved.

HOLDING THE 200 DAYS SHOWS THE WAY

Despite a drop in dragging the & S P 500 as 8.2% below its high success three years in early may, the index held above its 200-day moving average - a line in the sand as the bears and bulls major battle for control of market.

The slide had been telegram for the weeks and the performance by the market book - folding to a widely followed level - seems too well choreography to some analysts.

"The fact that we went 200-days... seems just a little too perfect,"said Marc Pado, U.S. Cantor Fitzgerald & Co in San Francisco market strategist.""

He said that the timing of the move was favourable, as the market creates a technical basis before resuming its move upward on the back of solid gains.

"You might get an attempt of a move of dust," said Pado. "But the majority is sometimes right."

Even if they are right, they seem not too convinced. So far in this quarter - being the first in the red for the S & P 500 in the last year, daily volume on the New York Stock Exchange, NYSE Amex and Nasdaq has average 7.22 billion shares.

It is to the bottom of the actions 7.94 billions of dollars traded every day during the first quarter, when the & S P 500 won 5.4%. Commitment to the market decreased. Frantic selling, flush to the bottom of the day traders appears to be absent up to now in this corrective phase.

Despite the holding above this level, the market has not removed the danger zone of dipping in its 200-day average. The curve has a steep slope, the & S P 500 took about two years to check an advance of 100 per cent of its March 2009 low.

The 200 day moving average is$ 1,263.47, less than 0.4% below the S & P 500 Friday closing.

"Whenever you test a resistance or support level, make you smaller," said Nicholas Colas, chief strategist of the New York ConvergEx Group market. "It's almost like a piece of metal." Each time that you hit, it grows more fragile, and that is why people are really concerned about the third or fourth time. »

After three consecutive days of decline, the & S P 500 declined 0.24% for the week and finished Friday at 1, 268. 45 - its seventh decline in the last eight weeks.

Industry lost Dow.DJI 0.58% for the week, closing Friday at 11,934.58, while the Nasdaq Composite.IXIC rose 1.39% for the week to end the 2,652.89. The Nasdaq is only slightly higher for the year, while the Dow and the S & P 500 both are still solidly in the black for 2011.

The next two weeks before the start of serious, quarterly earnings season may be marked by wild swings as those recently considered. Thursday, after a title to the Greece market, the & S P 500 posted his return stronger in almost a year, the days where the reference point fell more than 1%.

Its session low Thursday, the & S P 500 climbed more than 20 points in the fence. Swing covered Dow 233.79 points from its low intraday high session Thursday.

But buying interest waned Friday. Doubts about the transition to the Parliament in Athens of higher taxes and service cuts, weak Italian banks are also scaring investors.

The Federal Reserve on Wednesday gave a bleak outlook on the economy, down its forecast of growth of GDP in 2011 and 2012. And Chairman of the Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke has found it difficult to explain the sources of a said economic "soft patch" which seems to have become ubiquitous.

SUMMER STORM DATA

Also the weekly numbers of claims without employment, housing and manufacturing data will attract the most attention this week.

The index of S & P Case-Shiller April home prices Tuesday and the National Association of Realtors can index sale House Wednesday awaiting could confirm double dip of the housing market.

Activity of the plant grew in May to its slower pace since September 2009, according to the Institute for supply management, and Friday June ISM number should fall to 51.9, indicating a still slower rate of growth.

New applications for unemployment Thursday are expected to land over 400 000 for a 12th consecutive week, according to economists surveyed by Reuters.

Personal income and consumption, Monday, should move higher in May. Consumer confidence, on Tuesday by the Conference Board, predicted a reading of 60.5 June, just a touch less than 60.8 may, a survey Reuters showed. Despite a recent string of weak data in may, a sharp decline in crude oil prices is expected to buoy the confidence of consumers. (Wall St Week Ahead appears every Sunday.) Comments or questions about this column can be sent by email to: rodrigo.campos (at) thomsonreuters.com) (Reporting by Rodrigo Campos;) Other reports by Edward Krudy; (Editing by Jan Paschal)

GLOBAL MARKETS-Japan stocks shine, other LAGS ahead pays - Reuters

* Earnings Nikkei, aided by the weakness of the yen

* Copper bounces, high in folder

* Markets cheer American data optimistic, but cautious before payroll (updates prices)

By Ian Chua

(SYDNEY, 6 Jan Reuters) - Japanese Stocks is joined on Thursday as investors pull shares of large exporters after the dollar hit two weeks highs against the yen, but elsewhere in Asia, markets have been more strained prior to influential U.S. non-farm payrolls report.

Copper climbed 1% to a maximum of $9,654.25 per tonne, which brings record $9,754 struck Tuesday in sight, after that a report from ADP Wednesday showed a record 297,000 us private sector jobs were created in December.

It is the clearest signal in months that a resumption of the largest global economy was moving up to speed and prompted analysts to raise their forecast for data closely monitored non-farm payrolls due Friday.

Estimates centre now on an increase of 175 000 jobs, more than 140,000 in an earlier investigation of Reuters.

Some analysts were sceptical about the size of the jump in the ADP employment report, it follows a string of recent optimistic U.S. data showing that the economy is picking up steam.

"Markets are now wait for compensation of U.S. Friday for confirmation of the strong trend," said Hiroaki Osakabe, Manager of Fund Chibagin Asset Management in Tokyo. "But investors then will focus on U.S. effects data rate of the dollar/yen."

Index Nikkei 225 of the Japan increased by 1.4% and closed above 10,500 important psychological barrier. It ended its best level since May 2010.

Major exporters, including Canon Inc. and Toyota Motors rose more than 1%.

Index of the MSCI stock of Asia-Pacific outside Japan edged up 0.1%, having drifted in negative territory.

Earlier this week, technical indicators showed that it was close to being overbought after a strong late 2010 rally, making wary investors that markets were due for a withdrawal.

"Taxes up." "Low taxes." Why we should look ahead, not behind (http://rss.csmonitor)

My colleague from TPC Howard Gleckman wrote the other day about the confusion caused by multiple use of defenders of the baselines to measure the effects of tax proposals. But baselines are not really important. What is important is not where we start or change things but where we are.
Go to the next paragraph TaxVox
The tax policy Center is a joint venture of the Urban Institute and Brookings Institution. Is comprised of experts nationally recognized in taxation, the budget and social policy who have served the most senior levels of Government. TaxVox is tax Centre for tax policy and fiscal policy blog.
Baselines are largely political. Supporters use whatever version strengthens their ability to bludgeon opponents in a game essentially Inside-the-Beltway. Voters, thoroughly confused by this complex and esoteric scorekeeping cannot discover who is telling the truth.
Because a reference database gives you a starting point for allowing to calculate the change, it allows to measure the effects of tax proposals. You can see that a new tax raises earnings compared to a year before, or that it raises taxes for high-earners to what they were paying sometime in the past. But those who often are the wrong questions.
The problem is that these points of departure are completely arbitrary. Nothing intrinsically "right" or "bad" as it was in 2000 and 2003 tax legislation or this year. Nothing does not one of them more or less worthy as a basis for the measure. To assess whether a given policy gives a good result is our lack of agreement on the correct answer. Seems too regressive tax may seem too progressive for you. Federal revenues claiming that 20 per cent of GDP will look roughly higher for people who are interested in small but anemic Government for those who want the Government to do more.
The right question is what makes a particular level design mean for individuals tax and economy.
For example, leaving all 03 2001 tax cuts expire mean federal revenues total approximately $ 20 per cent of GDP in the Decade to come. makes them any permanent cut this to about 18 percent share. This is true, regardless of whether that you start from the base. In contrast, plan of President Obama extend reductions for all but the percentage of 2 win more money from households claim 19% of GDP. Each option would also distribute taxes in his own way to household income categories. This is also true regardless of what you start with the database.
What you need to do is ask yourself these questions: in view of the increasing concerns about explosion of deficits, federal special fiscal policy generate sufficient revenues to finance the Government want? He collect revenues as effectively as possible so that it is the least harm to the economy? And he divided charges enough on the distribution of income? These queries are difficult to answer but rethink their is much more useful to ask whether the taxes will be increase or drop to a baseline, or if it will take more or less income from the pockets of those particular to sometime in the past income group.
Of course, tax policy choices will be always political. And since we have no absolute standard for assessing taxes, assessments of the proposed amendments will be always subjective. But as you listen to the debate in Washington, keep your eyes on the prize: not reference but on where we are.
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