The June jobs report is in a few short hours (8: 30 AM and), and everyone looks.
Run the headlines of a consensus, and how they compare to previous month (via Bloomberg).
Total change in non-farm Payroll: estimate: 105 K, before: 54KChange in private payroll: estimate 132 K, before: 83KUnemployment rate: estimate: 9.1%, before: 9.1%Average hourly earnings growth: estimate of 0.2%, prior: 0.3%Change in the manufacture of payroll: 5 K, before:-5 KNow for some context: in April and may, the market is shaken by a series of disappointing numbers, leading to a large market swoon.
But things have come back nicely since the market reached June 20. Stocks have had an incredible 8-sessions run, and the data have surprised to the upside. Yesterday ADP report provided a very nice jolt of optimism. And in fact, given the rapidity of optimism has come back, the number of "Whispering" to today's report is probably higher than the 105 K cuff, which means that if we get only 105 K, it will be disappointing for some.
Early pass at the moment, markets are the lower drift, although again, there is no important too much until that number comes out (or so it seems).
Meanwhile, here are the comments of Goldman:
Indicators of the labour market most were stable or better these past few weeks. New claims without employment varies between 418 000-432 000 for seven weeks, advertising of employment held at reasonably strong levels, the employment index in two surveys ISM improved (although only slightly for the non-manufacturing index), and the ADP report on the growth of employment in the private sector was much firmer. In light of this information and the specific factors which weighed on the report of may, we expect profit above consensus of 125 000 jobs in June. This means a gain of pay in the private sector about 150,000 jobs, given the recent pace of job losses in the Government sector.
The unemployment rate is a fairly close call, but we expect falling to 9.0%. Improved toolbar is quite low, since the non-rounded unemployment rate was 9.053% in May. The unemployment rate is determined from the survey on the household, which can display a very different rate of growth of employment that the payroll survey - can - be even with the opposite sign - in a given month. But given our forecast for the Payroll report, it is logic to think at least some gain in household and surveys, and probably enough to exceed the growth in the work of the force (which has been flat on average until 2011). Reflecting the substantial torch in the labour market, we expect to be mild, with average hourly earnings only 0.1% in June (the average in the past is year of + 0.15%).
Obviously, we will be covering LIVE.
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