Poll: Dealers expect unemployment to relieve by ' 12

People fill out application forms for work at a job in Los Angeles, California, fair on October 13, 2010.

Credit: Reuters/Lucy NicholsonBy Chris Reese

NEW YORK | Friday, July 8, 2011 7: 00 pm EDT

NEW YORK (Reuters) - economists to financial institutions of first expect us unemployment in the fall of 2011 and 2012, despite a jobs report surprisingly low Friday, a Reuters poll found Friday.

Although economists of primary dealers claim unemployment to remain at historically high until 2012, they attribute that a probability of 20 per cent of the commitment of the Federal Reserve another program of revival of treasures purchases over the next two years, the survey.

Most economists to primary dealers - 20 large financial institutions that do business directly with the Fed - expect stubbornly high unemployment will contribute to the Central Bank of U.S. held official rate of interest at the current level close to zero by the first half of next year.

The poll was conducted after Friday, the Government stated that the unemployment rate increased to a maximum of six months from 9.2% in June, while non-farm payrolls increased by a mere 18,000 last month.

The growth of the tarnished jobs surprised most economists, such as the median of the forecast of growth of more than 90 000.

"It is a quite sounded result false, especially on the back of a low can report," said Omair Sharif, American economist with RBS Securities in Stamford. "But we know that a number of data sets will improve in the third quarter, especially with regard to the plant with car production sector and so on."

"There is evidence that things have started to search for in the second half of June"Sharif told."."

In Friday's survey, the median of forecasts of 14 of the 18 economists who responded to the principal dealer survey was for the rate of us unemployment dipping to 8.7% at the end of 2011.

The median of 17 of the dealers forecast was for a dip further to 8.4% in 2012, while the median of 18 of the dealers was 8.1% at the end of 2012.

Does are not all economists who responded to the survey responded to questions.

"We have not adjusted our prospects for the future monetary policy, noting (June pay) may be linked to transient factors, and will continue to monitor the data throughout the summer season prior to the change of expectations," said Justin Lederer, analyst with the Council of the Treasury of Cantor Fitzgerald in New York.

The median of forecasts of 16 dealers gave a 20 percent chance the Fed will make recovery program of the type "IS3" over the next two years. That compares with a median of 10 percent in a similar poll June 3.

Program of the Fed for Treasury purchases latest $ 600 billion, nicknamed of2, last weekend.

13 Of 18 primary dealers who responded to the survey expect the fed to hold official interest rates steady at the current range of zero to 0.25% through the first half of 2012. A survey conducted on June 22 has produced similar results, with 14 of 19 dealers require the Fed to keep rates hold through the first half of next year.

Payroll data Friday "offers more support for the view that the Fed will be waiting for a long time," said Dean Maki, Chief Economist for Barclays Capital in New York.

(Other reports by Emily Flitter and Pam Niimi;) Mounting by)