Whistles are seen Parliament during a rally against the economic austerity and corruption in the Syntagma (Constitution) square in Athens on June 26, 2011.
Credit: Reuters/John KolesidisBy Pedro Nicolaci Costa DaWASHINGTON. Sun June 26, 2011 3 pm EDT
WASHINGTON (AFP) - the US economy has decelerated sharply. A snapshot of the sector of the country this week should help to reveal if the slowdown is temporary or the beginning of a trend.
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke argued last week that the second only half of the year would be better than the first. But a downward revision in forecasts of the Central Bank for the economic growth for this year and next belied a lack of conviction.
Break-up of the debt of Europe remains a major cloud on global growth, with the last opus of the tragedy of the Greece rescue do little to convince investors that the country will be able to avoid a painful failure.
In this context, the Institute of U.S. manufacturing supply management survey, often an indicator of broader economic activity, new significance. Economists expect because the index Friday, will drop to 51.9 in June after a steep dive by seven points to 53.5 in may along never nearly 50 level between the growth of the contraction.
Surveys of manufactures of regional U.S. published so far this month above have augured poorly for the ISM report and experts in the industry believe that the sector is still faced with higher costs despite withdrawal recent energy prices.
"When I meet with member companies, that they will often complain me on the rising costs of raw materials,"said Chad Moutray, Chief Economist for the National Association of manufacturers. "
"Consumers are also tight, which makes it much more difficult to pass on these costs. It is therefore a tightening of the profits. »
As the President of the Fed, manufacturers hold hope for a better second half. The Fed last week revised its forecast for 2011 economic growth between 2.7 and 2.9%, a projection of April from 3.1% to 3.3%.
VOTE OF GREECE; PLANTS OF JAPAN
In Europe, concerns about Greece possible debt default have persisted, putting a damper on economic activity. An index of feeling economic in the euro area, released Wednesday, appear ready to maintain constant close 105,0 for June.
The Greek Parliament should vote on another round of austerity this week, and to approve the plan could lead the Government short of money within days. That could send a collapsed financial markets.
Among U.S. should remain largely in place, with the Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan confidence index given edging up to 72.0 in June.
Reflecting the economic malaise in the country, the US labor market is not likely to fare much better either. Two years after the resumption, weekly claims for the first time unemployment benefits should fall 420 only 9 000 to 000, still well above the levels suggests a strong labour market recovery.
"The majority of the population is still not feeling any improvement," said harm Bandholz, Chief U.S. economist at UniCredit Research in New York. "The main reason for this is the sluggish job market."
The economy added only 54,000 jobs in may, and economists fear that he did not much better in June.
Analysts will also pay particular attention to the data of the Japan for a sense of just how quickly the country is lift the de facto recession that followed the devastating earthquake of March and the tsunami.
Reports Monday and Tuesday are likely to propose the Japanese industry is better than consumers. It is anticipated that retail sales fell 2.6% level year - there in may after the decline of 4.8% in April.
However, industrial production is expected to jump 5.5% in a preliminary reading for may, 1.6% a month earlier. Who could augured well for the automotive industry in the United States, who was injured by supply chain disruptions related to the disaster of Japan.
Manufacturers U.S., facing a disappointing may report sales June Friday.
(Reports of Pedro Nicolaci da Costa;) (Editing by Dan Grebler)
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