Brussels - Greece has been removed from imminent default Saturday, when the euro-zone finance ministers signed off the coast on an episode of vital loan. But international creditors of the country are showing more concern by whether it can service its debt in the long term.
Athens receive a euro12 billion ($17,39 billion) tranche of the bailout existing European billion before July 15, in time to meet several deadlines for repayment of binding of this month and then the Finance Ministers of 17 countries that share the euro said Saturday night. The euro and the Monetary Fund International will continue to support the faltering economy of the Greece in the coming years, with a second package of aid to be completed by September.
While the renewed commitments save Greece immediate collapse, even its international creditors - for a long time the most optimistic on the prospects for the country - warn that a refund of the debt of 160% of economic output will be a difficult balance.
"The Greek government debt remain for many years at a high level and, therefore, subject to possible adverse developments that cannot be predicted," the European Commission, Directorate of the European Union and one of the three institutions in charge of the Greece rescue, said in a report published Saturday.
Especially below the expected economic growth "would be to the trajectory of debt on the path of a clearly unsustainable," said the commission.
In an illustration showing several scenarios for the Greece debt load, growth of only 1 point below expectations percentage leave the debt of the Greece approximately 170% of the gross domestic product after 2020, with the graph pointing firmly on the rise.
The report, the basis of the decision of the Ministers to release the payment of aid from July and to prepare a new rescue plan, is more pessimistic assessment of the commission yet. Private analysts and economists have long questioned the sustainability of the debt of the Greece. However, the European Union, the European Central Bank and the IMF have so far, at least publicly, confirmed their conviction that the situation of the Greece is manageable.
The Commission retains nevertheless that it is "not unrealistic to think that the Greece may reduce its deficit targets set out in its rescue and thus slowly chip away from debt. But the report makes a point of significant mark on the ability of the country - and will - to implement the reforms his creditors say are necessary to get the economy growing again.
"Solvency depends on politics and social conditions that allow non-implementation of required policies," the warnings of the report.
The warning was a clear ring, after weeks of sometimes dramatic back and forth between the Greek authorities and international creditors of the country, which culminated earlier this week in the narrow passage unpopular new austerity measures in Parliament, in the violent demonstrations in Athens.
"In view of the length, the extent and the nature of the necessary reforms, political and social consensus is a prerequisite for success," the Commission said in its report, repeating calls to European leaders on the opposition of the Greece to begin to support the rescue package.
For the first time, the report also contains a section on the restructuring of debt - including a scenario for a hair cut of 40 percent, a reduction of the value of Greek bonds.
The EU has so far excluded any haircut on obligations, and in his report, the Commission maintains that the negative consequences of restructuring would gain from debt restructuring.
Haircuts of 40 per cent would devastate Greek banks, sweeping capital cushions and the outbreak of massive deposit flight, the Commission warned. Restructuring of debt of the Greece also risk of "create a permanent change in the mood of investors and lead to prophecies come true for the other vulnerable Member States"-a shortcut for was already in Ireland and Portugal, as well as weak as States the Spain or the Italy.
The report stresses that fate of the Greece will be probably decided by what is happening in the country as well as by external conditions, it has little influence, such as global economic growth that it would provide a better market for exports.
These factors tend to overshadow any decision on a second rescue plan, which was simply the Greece buy more time, and the exact nature of the participation of the private sector, the main open issue in discussions on a new rescue plan.
Eurozone finance ministers are currently trying to find a way to get banks and other private creditors to contribute to a new aid program. Since restructuring forced - or any movement that triggers a negative reaction to the rating agencies - has been rejected, banks will likely be undertake to re-invest part of the money they get to their existing Greek bonds expire new debt at a lower interest rate.
However, several analysts have already pointed out that such a regime would be very expensive for the Greece and will not reduce its overall debt burden.
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